KUALA LUMPUR – The ringgit is likely to continue its uptrend against the US dollar next week, trading between the 4.57 and 4.58 level for the first week of 2024 on US interest rate cut expectations as early as March 2024, said an analyst.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the focus will be on the US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes to be released on Thursday.
“This will provide further clues on the potential US rate cuts in 2024. We believe the ringgit will attempt to break its immediate support of RM4.5778 as the rate cut narrative gains further strength.
“Should that happen, the next support level will be located at RM4.5104,” he said.
SPI Asset Management managing director Stephen Innes said the market is pricing in an additional 150 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in March 2024 versus the US Federal Reserve’s 75 bps in the second half.
“That is the biggest issue in foreign exchange markets right now. This debate will be resolved when we get the first US NFP to be released in early January.
“A strong print could push back the Fed’s rate cut expectations while a soft print could almost certainly cement a March cut and weaken the US dollar precipitously,” he said.
Innes expects the ringgit to move to 4.50 in the first half of 2024 against the US dollar. As for next week, gains could be limited to 4.58 ahead of the early-year release of the US NFP.
For the week just ended, the local note traded higher on positive sentiment in anticipation of a US rate cut next year.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit was firmer against the US dollar at 4.5900/5980 from 4.6265/6305 a week earlier.
The local unit also traded higher against other major currencies.
It rose vis-a-vis the Japanese yen to 3.2356/2415 from 3.2547/2579 a week earlier, improved against the British pound to 5.8321/8422 from 5.8720/8770, and appreciated versus the euro to 5.0729/0817 from 5.0915/0959 at the previous Friday’s close.
The ringgit was also traded firmer against a few Asean currencies.
It went up versus the Singapore dollar to 3.4746/4812 from 3.4933/4968 a week ago and strengthened against the Thai baht to 3.3422/3760 from 13.3509/3706 previously.
The ringgit was firmer against the Indonesian rupiah at 298.1/298.6 from 298.7/299.1 on Friday last week and gained against the Philippine peso to 8.28/8.31 from last week’s closing rate of 8.35/8.36. – December 30, 2023