KUALA LUMPUR – DAP-Pakatan Harapan (PH) may win the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election by the skin of its teeth with around 1,000 votes, provided Chinese and Indian voters turn out in strong force, DAP’s Ong Kian Ming said.
This is because Malay votes are largely expected to go to the opposition, Perikatan Nasional (PN), amid other negative perceptions against DAP-PH, the former Bangi MP said in an analysis.
In the scenario where DAP wins by a margin of less than 1,000 votes, it would require 20% Malay support, 90% Chinese support and 80% Indian support.
Among DAP’s difficulties in this by-election, to be held on May 11, is disappointment over the unity government’s performance, Ong said.
“It would not be inaccurate to say that many DAP and PH supporters have been disappointed by the performance of the unity government in the slow pace of delivering institutional reform (and) in the weak economic narrative.
“This is despite positive numbers for foreign direct investments and economic growth, as people are still experiencing rising living costs and higher costs when doing business,” Ong added.
Another reason why DAP-PH may struggle in the by-election is the public feud between some PH and Barisan Nasional leaders, particularly over KK Mart’s sale of socks with the word “Allah”.
A third reason Ong cited as a challenge to DAP is the perception that the party is “turning into an MCA 2.0”.
“Although I have argued… that (this will not happen) anytime soon, the general sentiment among non-Malay voters seems to be moving in this direction,” the former deputy international trade and industry minister said.
“These factors mean that the turnout among non-Malay voters is likely to reduce noticeably in this by-election, especially since the results won’t affect the stability of the Selangor state government,” he added, noting recent calls by some quarters for Indian voters to boycott the polls.
“The political environment does not favour PH at the moment, but with a well-coordinated campaign strategy and messaging, DAP may just pass this test by a small margin.”
In the Selangor state elections last August, DAP retained Kuala Kubu Baharu by a 4,119-vote majority.
The seat, which had 49.3% Malay voters in the state polls last year, is now 50% Malay.
Ong also predicted the worst-case scenario, where DAP-PH could lose the seat by more than 4,000 votes if turnout by Chinese and Indian voters drops below 50%.
There has been speculation that the BN parties MIC and MCA will boycott the unity government’s campaign for the Kuala Kubu Baru by-election.
However, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said yesterday that this was not true regarding MIC, while he would be meeting MCA leaders over the matter. – April 22, 2024