KUALA LUMPUR – With negotiations intensifying between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) over seat distribution for the next Melaka state election, political analysts suggest that while BN deserves the lion’s share of seats, PH must be offered a fair compromise—especially if the partnership is to continue at the national level.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara proposed that the incumbent formula be applied, allowing BN to defend all 20 seats it won in the 2021 state polls.
“Therefore, (seats) should be negotiated (in a way) where not only who gained the most votes should be given the priority, but the feeling on the ground (as well),” he told Scoop when contacted. “The important thing (to note) is that the Melaka government is dominated by BN in this case. So priority should be given to them in this case.”
Azmi also said the five seats currently held by PH—four of which are DAP constituencies—should be left for the coalition to defend.
“Of course, (PH) won’t be happy with that, but they failed miserably in the last state elections,” he added.
However, International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) assistant professor Lau Zhe Wei said the viability of either an equal-sharing or incumbent-based formula depends on the longevity of the BN-PH partnership.
Speaking to Scoop, Lau noted that the incumbent formula would suffice if the alliance remains limited to the current term. But if extended to the 16th General Election (GE16), it may not be practical—particularly for BN.
He warned that in Melaka, adopting an equal 14-14 seat split could alienate BN supporters.
“I think it is good that they take a sharing formula where it is not equally 14 to 14, but like 16 to 12 or like 18 to 10,” he said. “No matter how (thing goes) they have to give more advantage to BN, where they have to contest more seats.”
Lau further explained that even if PH were allocated an equal number of seats, there is no assurance BN voters would back PH candidates.
“(At this juncture, even if) PH got a perfect result like winning 10 or 13 seats out of 14, (BN-PH) still cannot form the state government,” he added.
Lau also said BN could apply a similar seat-sharing approach in the next Johor state election, expected in 2027, provided PH reciprocates by ceding parliamentary seats to BN for GE16.
The current debate was sparked after nine Melaka DAP branches proposed a 14-14 equal-sharing formula between BN and PH, which would require BN to give up several of the seats it won in 2021.
This suggestion was swiftly rejected by Umno, with Youth chief and Merlimau assemblyman Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh telling DAP to “dream on”. However, he had reportedly misread a China Press article, mistaking the proposal as originating from nine DAP divisions rather than branches.
Melaka DAP publicity secretary Kerk Chee Yee later clarified that the proposal came from the grassroots and had not yet been formally discussed by the state leadership.
Melaka Amanah chief Datuk Ashraf Mukhlis Minghat, meanwhile, urged BN to keep an open mind in seat negotiations, arguing that PH deserved a greater stake due to its stronger showing in the 2022 general election despite currently holding only five state seats.
The issue has now caught national attention, with Umno secretary-general Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki stating that the final decision on seat distribution would rest with coalition chairmen Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
What about PN-held seats?
Perikatan Nasional (PN) currently controls three seats in Melaka—Bemban, Sungai Udang and Rembia. Rembia is now held by PAS following the defection of Datuk Muhamad Jailani Khamis from Umno, while the other two remain under Bersatu.
Asyraf has said the Bersatu-held seats will be subject to negotiations.
Azmi agreed, saying it should be open for discussion whether PH gets to contest these.
He suggested a pragmatic approach would be to allow the runner-up from the 2021 polls—BN, in the case of both Bemban and Sungai Udang—to contest the seats. However, he acknowledged that the formula may not hold today.
“But this formula cannot be used because the elections were held four years ago and you need to gauge the mood of the voters right now (before making the decision).” – May 15, 2025