KUALA LUMPUR — Allowing Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) to contest against each other in the upcoming state elections is a better option than forcing them into an alliance that could lead to internal conflict, political analysts say.
Their comments come after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim mooted the idea of a grand coalition involving Pakatan Harapan (PH), BN, and GRS.
Speaking to Scoop, Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s associate professor Lee Kuok Tiung likened attempts to unite BN and GRS to building a political “time bomb” that could explode at any time due to unresolved internal frictions.
“While the desire for a major coalition involving PH, BN and GRS is strong, problems will arise if the Sabah leadership remains at odds and unable to reach consensus.
“There’s no reason to sit at the same table if the parties don’t share a common vision,” he said.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara shared Lee’s view, noting that BN and GRS are expected to clash in 80% of the state’s 73 constituencies. He warned that seat negotiations between the two will likely prove too difficult.
He said that cooperation would complicate seat negotiations between BN and GRS, while no such issue is expected between PH and GRS, as their constituencies do not overlap.
“I think it’s better they go head-to-head. It’s not ideal, but votes will split not just between GRS and BN, but PH too.”
Last week, Sabah BN chairman Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin said the coalition was open to contesting democratically against GRS, but ruled out forming alliances simply to prop up “weak and insincere governments.”
The Sabah Umno leader said he would only consider working with GRS after the election, citing the state chapter’s fraught experience with the coalition in the past.
Sabah BN and GRS were former allies, but their relationship broke down after the so-called “Kinabalu Move” in early 2023, when Bung and Warisan attempted—unsuccessfully—to topple Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor’s administration.
GRS deputy secretary-general Datuk Armizan Ali has backed Bung’s idea of a head-on contest, saying it would let the people decide who they want to lead. He added that an electoral contest would also clarify which coalition commands stronger public support.
However, Professor James Chin of the University of Tasmania believes full-scale clashes between the coalitions are unlikely. He anticipates more than half the seats will be settled in advance, with only the remainder left open to contest.
“There might be some friction, but nothing widespread,” he said. “Eventually, I think GRS, PH and BN—through Umno—will reach a general understanding.”
Chin dismissed the war of words between Bung and Armizan as mere “kopitiam talk”, pointing out that negotiations have yet to begin.
Will this pose a dilemma for Anwar?
Bung’s push for direct confrontation with GRS is likely to put Anwar in a tight spot, given his vision of a broad-based coalition to ensure Sabah’s political stability. PH is currently trying to maintain friendly ties with both GRS and BN, despite being in a formal alliance with BN for the state polls.
Still, Chin said Bung’s stance does not endanger Anwar or the federal government.
“It’s not a problem for Anwar because GRS, PH and BN all support his administration. Whoever wins only affects Sabah politics, not federal politics.”
Azmi and Lee, however, contend that Bung’s position could present complications for the prime minister.
Lee noted that central leaders are keen to replicate the federal alliance at the state level. But without shared goals among state leaders, such unity remains difficult to achieve.
“Cooperation requires alignment in perspective,” Lee said, adding that the PH-BN-GRS situation in Sabah can be viewed as an “experiment” to test PH-BN collaboration ahead of the 16th general election (GE16), if formalised by then.
Azmi also pointed out that Bung’s position appears inconsistent with that of Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who had previously signalled openness to Anwar’s grand coalition idea.
On May 12, Scoop reported Zahid as saying Umno would consider Anwar’s proposal, provided that seats previously won by Umno, but now held by defectors aligned with GRS, are returned. — June 19, 2025