KUALA LUMPUR – With campaigning entering its final days, political analysts believe Barisan Nasional (BN) has edged ahead of Pakatan Harapan (PH) in Negeri Sembilan, although the race remains too close to call as several marginal seats are expected to decide the outcome.
Political analyst and geostrategist Dr Azmi Hassan said BN currently holds only a slight advantage over PH, largely due to the momentum built during the campaign.
“Talking about momentum, for the last few days, I think Barisan Nasional has only a slight edge over Pakatan Harapan in terms of antithesis during campaign.”
“Barisan Nasional team seem to be very excited to exist in campaign because they have the feeling that they can form the state government. So, this is very important psychologically for voters who are still unsure who to vote,” he told Scoop.
Despite BN’s slight advantage, Dr Azmi stressed that Chennah and Linggi remain the election’s defining contests.
On Chennah, he believes DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke is likely to retain the seat, although with a significantly reduced majority.
“I think Anthony Lok will retain the Chennah seat, but I think the majority will be less than 1,000 or it can be less than 500, but I’m confident that as the DAP sec-gen, I think it is very important that Anthony Lok retain this particular seat,” he explained.
Linggi, meanwhile, is shaping up to be an even tighter battle involving Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.
“And about Linggi, now this is a very, very difficult situation because this is a stronghold of UMNO. So, I think it’s going to be very interesting. It’s touch and go for Aminuddin in Linggi,” he added.
Senior political analyst Dr Lau Zhe Wei similarly identified Chennah and Linggi as the state’s two most consequential battlegrounds, arguing that their significance goes beyond simply adding seats to either coalition.
According to him, Chennah is pivotal for DAP because retaining the seat would reinforce the party’s ability to attract Malay support despite the combined BN-Perikatan Nasional (PN) electoral cooperation.
“If they lose Chennah, it will mean that they could not form the state government,” he said, adding that a victory would also allow DAP to strengthen its narrative that it can win support beyond its traditional Chinese voter base.
Linggi, meanwhile, could determine PH’s overall path to retaining power.
Dr Lau said the seat serves as a barometer for PH’s prospects in several other mixed constituencies, making it one of the most closely watched contests on polling day.
Lecturer at the School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian echoed the assessment, saying BN currently enjoys an advantage through its electoral understanding with PN as well as its organisational strength on the ground.
“BN currently appears to hold an advantage due to strategic collaboration with PN; organisation and local machinery, although several marginal seats remain highly competitive,” he said.
He also identified Chennah and Linggi as realistic battlegrounds, alongside Ampangan, Juasseh, Kota and Klawang, noting that “the outcome is likely to be decided by marginal constituencies rather than safe seats.”
Dr Pandian added that turnout could prove decisive, particularly if young, urban and fence-sitting voters come out in larger numbers.
“Higher participation among young, urban and fence-sitting voters could significantly influence closely fought constituencies,” he added.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) associate professor Dr Mazlan Ali also sees BN enjoying an edge in the rural constituencies, where Malay votes are expected to consolidate.
However, he believes PH remains competitive in mixed and non-Malay majority seats, adding that recent developments could still work in the coalition’s favour.
“I think some recent factors give PH a slight advantage and the possibility of a hung state assembly is also a possibility,” he said
The analysts were also largely unconvinced that the recently released Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) findings on Tabung Haji would significantly alter voting patterns in the state.
Dr Pandian said while the issue could resonate with some undecided Malay-Muslim voters, it is unlikely to outweigh bread-and-butter concerns, candidate credibility and local governance.
“The Tabung Haji RCI may shape the national narrative but is unlikely to outweigh local development, candidate credibility and state governance issues.”
“It could resonate with some Malay-Muslim voters, particularly undecided voters, but any impact is likely to be limited unless reinforced by broader campaign messaging,” he explained
Dr Azmi shared a similar view, saying the timing of the RCI may attract political attention but has yet to generate the kind of momentum capable of shifting the electoral landscape.
“Yes, the Tabung Haji, RCI, is always a sensitive issue.But again, I think the negative impact on Barisan Nasional in this case is very, very minimum,” he said.
With polling day approaching, analysts agree that while BN appears to have entered the final stretch with a slight advantage, the contest remains highly competitive.
Ultimately, they say, the outcome will depend less on national controversies and more on whether BN can convert its campaign momentum into votes, and whether PH can successfully defend key battlegrounds such as Chennah and Linggi that may ultimately determine control of Negeri Sembilan. – July 31, 2026