KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia is expected to experience a short-lived La Niña phenomenon from early 2026, which could affect rainfall patterns.
However, conditions are projected to return to neutral levels shortly after.
The National Climate Centre, under the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia), issued a statement outlining the long-term weather forecast from September 2025 to February 2026.
The forecast shows that most international climate models predict the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain neutral, with a 56% probability of continuing until October 2025.
“According to a consensus of several climate models, global phenomena influencing the current weather conditions in Malaysia, such as ENSO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), were also considered,” MetMalaysia said.
“Most international climate models indicate that the current ENSO is neutral, with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) recorded at -0.1°C for May, June, and July 2025,” it added.
MetMalaysia explained that after this period, a brief La Niña event is possible at the start of the new year, before weather patterns return to normal. The phenomenon is expected to affect rainfall distribution across Southeast Asia, including Malaysia.
The department noted that Malaysia is currently in the final phase of the Southwest Monsoon, which is expected to last until September.
“The prevailing southwest winds are causing low humidity, which in turn reduces cloud formation and rainfall in most states,” MetMalaysia said.
As a result, more dry days than rainy ones are expected, with a potential risk of local and cross-border haze if open burning is not controlled.
“Despite the dry conditions, the risk of strong winds and thunderstorms remains, especially in the western Peninsula, northern Sarawak, and western Sabah,” the statement added.
MetMalaysia further explained that thunderstorms typically occur early in the morning due to the storm line phenomenon, a line of thunderstorms formed by the convergence of winds, which may last for several hours.
Based on weather forecast models, strong west winds are expected to blow over the country from September 22 to 25, which could lead to the formation of storm lines.
“This could bring heavy rain and strong winds, especially in northern Sarawak, western Sabah, and the Federal Territory of Labuan during this period,” MetMalaysia said.
The department advised the public to remain vigilant and stay informed about weather warnings issued periodically to be prepared for any eventualities. – September 20, 2025