THE Melaka state election tomorrow is shaping up to be a crucial test of the emerging political realignments ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16), with the Barisan Nasional (BN)-Perikatan Nasional (PN) electoral arrangement and the growing cooperation between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu under close scrutiny.
A total of 687,697 voters are eligible to cast their ballots to elect representatives to the 28 state constituencies, a significant increase from the approximately 495,000 registered voters in the 2021 state election. The electorate comprises 63% Malays, 28% Chinese, 6% Indians and 3% from minority communities, including the Portuguese and Orang Asal.
While the election is ostensibly about choosing a state government, its implications extend well beyond Melaka. It could provide an indication of whether Umno and PAS can put aside their differences to consolidate Malay support, and whether Anwar’s efforts to rebuild confidence among Malay voters are gaining traction.
BN is contesting 23 seats, with Umno fielding candidates in 18, while PN is contesting five — PAS in two, Wawasan in two and Gerakan in one.
On the other side, PH is contesting 24 seats, while Bersatu is fielding candidates in seven. Despite their growing parliamentary cooperation, the two will face each other in Pengkalan Batu and Ayer Keroh.
Rafizi Ramli’s Bersama is another wildcard. Contesting 16 seats, it is expected to play the role of spoiler, particularly by drawing votes from PKR and disaffected PH supporters.
However, after its disastrous showing in Johor, the immediate challenge for Bersama may simply be to repeat its strategy in Negeri Sembilan — avoid another election in which it loses all its deposits.
Can BN and PN consolidate the Malay vote?
The BN-PN arrangement is arguably the most significant development in this election.
By avoiding direct contests between Umno and PAS in most constituencies, the arrangement reduces the likelihood of a split Malay vote — a division that has previously benefited PH.
But an electoral understanding between political leaders does not automatically translate into support at the ballot box.
The question is whether traditional PAS supporters can bring themselves to vote for Umno candidates, particularly given the years of political hostility between the two parties.
The issue of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s house arrest and its political ramifications could also influence voter sentiment, although it remains to be seen whether this will resonate beyond the parties’ respective core supporters.
If BN and PN can successfully transfer their support to each other’s candidates, the implications for GE16 could be considerable.
Can PH hold on to its five seats?
This is perhaps the biggest electoral challenge for Anwar.
PH won five seats in the 2021 election, four of which were secured by DAP. PKR, therefore, faces the very real possibility of being wiped out in the state.
There is also a political contradiction that PH must explain to voters.
The coalition was part of the Melaka state administration alongside BN until it withdrew its support in July over the constitutional amendment allowing the appointment of nominated assemblymen.
Yet at the federal level, PH continues to govern alongside BN.
PH must convince voters that it remains a credible alternative to BN while explaining why its cooperation with the same party at Putrajaya remains politically justified.
It also has to retain its traditional non-Malay support while making inroads among Malay voters — two objectives that have increasingly proved difficult to reconcile.
Will Bersatu’s cooperation with PH pay off?
The relationship between Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Anwar is another interesting experiment.
Muhyiddin has been careful to distinguish the parliamentary cooperation agreement with the Prime Minister from a formal electoral alliance.
Nevertheless, the Melaka contest could offer an indication of whether such cooperation has a future.
If Bersatu can demonstrate that it still commands a meaningful Malay grassroots following following its fallout with PAS, a broader partnership with PH at the federal level cannot be ruled out.
The political calculation is straightforward: PH needs to regain Malay support, while Bersatu continues to struggle to attract non-Malay voters.
However, Bersatu’s recent performances in Johor and Negeri Sembilan suggest that its own electoral appeal may be waning.
In Negeri Sembilan, the party was wiped out, losing its deposits in 23 of the 24 seats it contested.
This raises an obvious question: how much electoral value can Bersatu actually bring to PH?
Will 30,000 new voters swing the election?
The increase in the electorate could make a difference, particularly in closely contested constituencies.
But there is little justification for assuming that younger voters will automatically gravitate towards PH, Bersatu or Bersama.
Their concerns are likely to be more immediate: employment opportunities, the cost of living, housing affordability and economic prospects.
National political controversies, including corruption allegations and the Najib house arrest issue, may not carry the same weight among younger voters as the economic realities affecting their daily lives.
With 75% of the approximately 30,000 new voters reportedly Malay, their preferences could be particularly significant in mixed and Malay-majority constituencies.
Bersama: spoiler or serious contender?
Bersama’s performance will be closely watched, especially given its decision to contest 16 seats despite being a relatively new political party.
Its challenge is to establish an electoral identity beyond the personalities associated with its formation.
The party could attract disaffected PH supporters, particularly those unhappy with Anwar’s leadership or the pace of reforms. But that support could come at PH’s expense.
In the previous election, 13 constituencies were decided by fewer than 1,000 votes. Even a relatively small diversion of votes could change the outcome.
If Bersama repeats its Johor performance and loses all its deposits, it would raise serious questions about its viability as a political force.
It does not help that the party which champions integrity has been stained by scandal when its co-founder Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad was caught for khalwat by the religious authorities.
This too could be a decision factor to conservative, rural voters.
Is Melaka a referendum on Anwar’s Malay support?
Anwar has spent much of his premiership trying to broaden his appeal among Malay voters without alienating DAP’s predominantly non-Malay support base.
The BN-PN arrangement presents him with a formidable challenge.
It offers Malay voters an alternative that combines Umno’s traditional grassroots machinery with PAS’s religious and conservative appeal.
For Anwar, the danger is not merely the loss of seats. It is the perception that, despite being Prime Minister, he has failed to rebuild Malay confidence in PKR and PH.
The more important indicator will be the pattern of Malay support across rural, semi-urban and mixed constituencies rather than the overall seat count.
This is also why the possibility of a more structured understanding with Bersatu deserves serious consideration, even if the party’s recent electoral performances suggest it has lost some of its appeal.
Can PKR avoid being wiped out?
The outlook for PKR is particularly challenging. The party is caught between an erosion of Malay support, the possibility of Bersama siphoning off votes and the difficulty of competing against Umno and PAS in constituencies where Malay sentiment is likely to determine the outcome.
As Anwar’s own party, PKR cannot afford to be reduced to an insignificant presence in a state election.
Its performance will be an important measure of whether the Prime Minister’s political standing translates into electoral support for his own party.
A complete wipeout would be difficult to dismiss as merely a local setback.
DAP faces its own test
DAP, too, enters the election with questions to answer.
The party was wiped out in Sabah, lost four incumbent seats in Johor — winning only six of the 17 seats it contested compared with MCA’s eight-seat haul — and secured nine of the 11 seats it contested in Negeri Sembilan.
Even secretary-general Anthony Loke lost his state seat to MCA by just 500 votes.
In Melaka, DAP is contesting seven seats, including the four it won in 2021. It is expected to retain most, if not all, of these constituencies, although its majorities could be reduced.
The changing electorate presents another challenge. With a significant proportion of new voters being Malay, DAP will have to work harder to maintain its position in mixed constituencies.
The resignation of Loke in protest against Najib’s house arrest is unlikely to be a decisive issue for younger Melaka voters, whose priorities are more likely to revolve around jobs, wages and the cost of living.
For DAP, the challenge is to demonstrate that its electoral appeal remains intact despite the setbacks elsewhere.
The hot seats to watch
Bukit Katil
PH election director and former chief minister Datuk Seri Adly Zahari (Amanah) faces PAS candidate Muhammad Ridzuan Mohd Sarif, Bersama’s Dr Aliza Che Amran and independent candidate Abu Bakar Sabudin. Adly won by just over 1,000 votes in the previous election, making this one of the constituencies to watch.
Paya Rumput
Anwar’s political secretary Datuk Azman Abidin (PKR) faces a three-cornered contest against PAS’ Dr Rafie Ahmad and Bersama’s Abdul Rashid Abu Bakar. Umno won the seat by just over 600 votes in 2021, making it a difficult battleground for PKR.
Bemban
Wawasan candidate Dr Mohd Yadzil Yaakub faces Bersatu’s Muhammad Rabaie Ab Hamid, Bersama’s Dr Muhammad Solehin Saleh and independent candidate Abd Halim Said. Yadzil won by just 328 votes previously, making this one of the tightest contests.
Ayer Keroh
Two-term DAP incumbent Kerk Chee Yee faces Gerakan’s Datuk Michael Gan Peng Lam, Bersatu’s Mohd Hamnaim Mohamad and Bersama’s Muhammad Muhaimin Lau Abdullah.
With Malays making up approximately 42% of the constituency, the seat could become a test of whether PN’s Malay support can influence the outcome of a contest involving Gerakan. A concerted campaign by PAS and Wawasan supporters could potentially strengthen Gan’s challenge.
Pengkalan Batu
A four-cornered contest sees Umno’s Siti Aisyah Mahmood take on DAP’s Jason Tze-Xi Nathan, Bersatu’s former assemblyman Norhizam Hassan Baktee and Bersama’s Goh Han Koon. The seat is particularly interesting given that Umno’s Datuk Kalsom Nordin won by just 131 votes in the previous election.
The numbers game
The election could provide an early indication of how the political landscape is shaping up ahead of GE16.
Our projection:
BN-PN: 24 seats
PH: 4 seats
Ultimately, Melaka is about more than who forms the next state government.
It is a test of whether Umno and PAS can translate political cooperation into votes, whether Anwar can arrest the erosion of Malay support, and whether Bersatu still has enough grassroots strength to be a meaningful political partner.
For PKR, the stakes are particularly high. For DAP, it is about defending its remaining electoral strength. And for Bersama, it is about proving that it is more than a protest vehicle.
Come tomorrow night, the results may offer the first serious indication of which political combinations have a future — and which are merely arrangements of convenience. – November 13, 2026