KUALA LUMPUR – Political analysts predict a potential slight erosion in support for Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the upcoming state elections, but they remain cautious about Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) ability to make significant inroads in the polls.
Speaking with Scoop recently, the analysts generally agreed that it is unlikely for PH to lose its grip on the states it currently governs.
However, their opinions varied on PN’s potential success in winning over voters in the six contested states.
Among the six states heading to the polls on August 12 – Penang, Negri Sembilan, and Selangor are presently held by PH, while Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah are governed by PN.
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, suggests that PH’s unity government partner, Barisan Nasional (BN), might be able to gain some seats from PN component party PAS.
He believed that while PN could gain traction in PH-dominated areas, the elections are unlikely to yield significant surprises.
“BN’s Umno might dent some of PAS’ territory, or Bersatu might make inroads into PH’s strongholds, leading to minor seat changes,” Azmi added.
Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, a political science lecturer at Universiti Sains Malaysia, predicts a potential “significant scaling down of support” for PH, partly due to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim-led coalition joining forces with BN to form the federal government.
“(Anwar) is facing challenges in convincing voters, even his own PH supporters, about the wisdom of aligning with forces he once criticised as corrupt,” Ahmad Fauzi said.
“He is also struggling to assure Malay voters that their interests will not diminish under his rule, despite promoting multiculturalism.”
Kartini Aboo Talib, an academician at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, highlights the crucial role of youth Malay voters, who are mobilizing through social media campaigns to cast their ballots.
She anticipates significant vote shifting from Umno to PN, primarily due to the unity government’s perceived inability to resolve critical issues such as high food prices and the devaluation of the ringgit against the US dollar.
Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said that PN may gain ground by appealing to a more “conservative” nation. He also believed that PN could possibly wrest one or two states away from PH, driven by the principles espoused by the coalition.
“An increasing number of voters are seeking a more religious outlook for the country, something they believe only PAS and PN can deliver. If Selangor, supposedly the most advanced state, were to fall, it could weaken the federal government,” Oh said.
The six-state polls will see nominations on July 29, with early voting scheduled for August 8. – Scoop, July 24, 2023