KUALA LUMPUR – The fight between Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election on May 11 is expected to see the coalitions’ candidates leveraging on differing factors.
According to Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Mazlan Ali, PN’s Khairul Azhari Saut will have the advantage of experience and local knowledge, while PH’s Pang Sock Tao might capitalise on her youth as well as links to the federal and state administration.
“Voters might be more open to casting their ballots for a local boy, especially if such voters place importance in local family ties and see (Khairul) as someone who has long helped the local community,” Mazlan told Scoop.
Having completed his early education in Kuala Kubu Baharu itself, 54-year-old Khairul, whose professional experience includes corporate positions with oil and gas companies Damini Corp and Petrogas Resources, had also served as a former Hulu Selangor municipal councillor.
His political experience also lends credibility to his name as he was Hulu Selangor Bersatu division vice-chief in 2016 before moving up the ranks to the deputy position, which he held until becoming acting chief last year.
He also holds an executive diploma in management from Universiti Malaya and an executive Masters degree in business administration from Universiti Malaysia Pahang.
In contrast, DAP’s 31-year-old Pang joined the party in 2017 – the same year she graduated from Universiti Tenaga Nasional with a bachelor’s degree in electrical and electronic engineering with honours.
Her political experience is the only work experience she has had. She started out as a presenter and later producer for DAP’s video channel Ubah TV, besides serving as special officer to former energy, science, technology, environment and climate change minister Yeo Bee Yin.
Pang’s current post is Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming’s press secretary.
Voter demographic
Kuala Kubu Baharu, one of the three state seats under the Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituency, is composed of 50% Malay voters while Chinese make up about 20%, Indian voters 18% and Orang Asli the remainder.
A PN candidate from PAS won in Hulu Selangor for the first time in the 2022 general election.
Commenting on whether Khairul’s local ties might sway Chinese voters away from DAP’s Pang, Mazlan opined that Chinese tend to think “strategically” and are likely to consider the benefits a candidate brings to the table.
“(Pang) is a candidate from a party that is part of the federal government and the state administration. That will be a boon for Chinese voters who think that such links could ease the process of securing development and livelihood allocations,” he said.
“There should be no problem for DAP’s candidate to garner at least 80% of non-Malay votes and there is even a segment of moderate Malay voters who will give DAP their vote.”
The political analyst added that it is “difficult” for non-Malays to support any party that is connected with PN component member PAS due to how the party has come off as being “unfriendly” in certain issues.
“The Malay-Muslim narrative that is strongly embedded within PN also makes it hard to dismiss the perception of them being less tolerant of non-Malays.
“This is something that the unity government’s machinery will be utilising to their advantage,” he added.
As such, he suggested that PN’s non-Malay members such as Gerakan and newly-welcomed Malaysian Indian People’s Party will have to pull their weight and do their best to pull in votes from the non-Malay communities.
While the May 11 by-election is expected to be a showdown mainly between PN and the unity government, one other candidate from the Muda-Parti Sosialis Malaysia electoral pact is expected to join the fray.
Voter turnout will be a key factor in deciding who wins, and DAP’s former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming has posited that Chinese and Indian voters in Kuala Kubu Baharu must turn up in full force for PH to retain the seat – as Malay votes are widely expected to go to PN.
Even then, at 90% Chinese turnout, 80% Indian and 20% Malay, DAP’s Pang could manage a win by a margin of less than 1,000 votes, he said in a recent analysis.
Ong also predicted the worst-case scenario, where DAP-PH could lose the seat by more than 4,000 votes if turnout by Chinese and Indian voters drops below 50%.
Among factors that could influence Malay votes away from DAP-PH is the recent controversy over KK Mart’s sale of socks with the word “Allah” and the resulting public feud between DAP and Umno leaders over boycott calls. Meanwhile, low voter turnout among non-Malays could be fueled by disappointment with the unity government’s slow pace of reforms.
Kuala Kubu Baharu, a former MCA stronghold, has been a DAP seat for the last three elections since 2013 when DAP’s Lee Kee Hiong won it by beating her rival from the Barisan Nasional party by more than 1,700 votes.
Lee defended the seat in the 2018 general election, again beating the closest contender MCA, by 7,134 votes.
In the state election in August last year, Lee beat the PN candidate from Gerakan by 4,119 votes to win the seat for a third time. Other contenders last year were a candidate from Muda and one from Parti Rakyat Malaysia.
The seat became vacant after Lee died on March 21. – April 26, 2024